race so far. many of these candidates, as i understand it, have not raised a lot of money. i think that's great. they've had a chance to have their say. there's been a real diversity of personalities and views without amassing large amounts of money. as far as i can tell, that could continue on. >> i've got to leave it there, governor. we've run out of time. thank you very much as always. tomorrow i'll be back with results of the iowa caucuses. "piers morgan tonight" live at midnight eastern. right now "ac360." good evening. 10:00 on the east coast, 9:00 in des moines, iowa. welcome to this special edition of "ac360," eve of election 2012. with the first of the nation's caucuses it starts counting. republicans will start choosing candidates in a campaign after everyone you see here and a few

you don't, have been the front-runner or the front-runner -- or may soon become the front-runner. some of these boxes may soon be empty. politico's roger simon said iowa caucuses don't pick winners, they eliminate losers. a lot of people could continue on from here even if they don't place well. a loser here may take new hampshire. someone else could win south carolina and yet another may win florida. it's just been that kind of a campaign. the polls here reflect it. take a look. the latest from the "des moines register," mitt romney and ron paul in a statistical tie. rick santorum close behind. newt gingrich fourth and fading. rick perry fifth and climbing slowly. michele bachmann in single digits. that poll came out over the weekend. arg showed romney in front. paul, santorum and gingrich essentially tied for second. it won't be dull and every move matters.

>> reporter: at this stage in the race, there's no room for error. >> it's a wide open race. people have been watching the debates. and they're looking for the perfect candidate. >> reporter: mitt romney leading in the national polls, all but ignoring iowa until the last few weeks. his late focus might be paying off. keeping expectations low, but a win now a very real possibility. >> this president's failed. he went on the "today" show shortly after being inaugurated and he said if,fy can't get this as a one-term proposition. i'm here to collect. >> reporter: ron paul spent the past ten days fighting back against questions of controversial newsletters with his name on them. still, mr. paul supporters among most dedicated in iowa and could be the difference in a victory here. >> if liberty is the most important issue, the most important responsibility of government is to protect liberty. and not to be the policeman of

the world and not to have a runaway welfare state. >> i do have a hawkeye jacket on. >> reporter: but if anyone has the momentum in these final days, it's former pennsylvania senator rick santorum. he's spent months in iowa. visited all 99 counties and held more than 350 events. today his small staff, campaign headquarters in des moines working the phone. they're trying to capitalize on his sudden surge. trying to ensure that santorum supporters actually show up to caucuses. >> i'm asking you to not settle for someone who, as your nominee, who might be able to win the election, but the election would be a puric victory. in other words, we wouldn't have a candidate who is going to be elected president who will do what's necessary of what america needs. >> reporter: surge comes mostly from evangelicals and takes away the traction from newt gingrich. leading the state just a month

ago but relentless attacks from his opponents seemingly having an effect. >> we've gotten into a really sick system. where people raise lots of money to hire nasty people to run vicious commercials. it is sickening the whole process. >> reporter: it's been a volatile race for months with various candidates jumping to the lead only to fade weeks later. michele bachmann, who won the ames straw poll just four months ago, tonight seems far back in the pack. the same for one-time front-runner governor rick perry, hoping for a last-minute push in a caucus that can be as unpredictable as this race so far. >> and, of course, what happens here in iowa matters but it also doesn't matter. i think back to 2008. it was mike huckabee who won here in the state in the gop caucuses back then. rick santorum has been comparing himself to mike huckabee, surging in the polls just in the last few days. over the four days "the des moines register" poll was taken, his numbers significantly began to increase. again, it all remain up to who

actually comes out, who goes to those caucuses tomorrow night. santorum is trying to get as many people -- his hard core supporters to attend those events. traditionally a lot may depend on the weather. let's take a look back at 2008 and the field this year. john king is standing by. john, for santorum to be saying he could be like huckabee, it's good for iowa. doesn't mean necessarily he has life beyond here. >> it would make him at the moment the conservative alternative to mitt romney. that is what rick santorum wants us to be saying around this time tomorrow night. let's go back and look at iowa. this is 2008 general election. let's look at the republican caucus. this is hike huckabee, the orange in the middle. . we see senator santorum filling in part of the state tomorrow night, that means he could object his way to victory. you have conservative christian, evangelical voters. they were the key to huckabee four years ago. he won iowa 35% of the vote. mitt romney had 25%.

he won in the eastern part of the state, davenport, cedar rapids and dubuque and won in the west, the key area to watch for mitt romney. this is a more conservative part of the state out here. if romney is doing well out here, he could be on the way to winning iowa. the big question is, can he keep conservative voters? this is evangelical country. one new thing in this campaign we don't know, this is the first presidential election where we know the tea party is a force in the republican party. the darker the color, if it's darker green or almost black, these are areas of iowa where voters have said i identify with the tea party. a lot of evangelical party four years ago, a lot of tea party voters as well. evangelical and tea party voters come together around one candidate or are they fractured, split? that's what mitt romney is hoping for. one of the things you want to see here, candidate visits often make the difference. mitt romney has been in the state the least. santorum has visited all 99 counties.

which will emerge tomorrow night, old fashioned or mitt romney relying on support. one last thing i would like to show you is tv ad count. governor perry, struggling right now, has up to today, his color the orange, bought the most ads in iowa. will that work for him? you see romney and gingrich roughly in second there. anderson, the key question i want to go back to that initial graphic we had, the key question is this. can the evangelical voters come together, will they come together around one candidate or will it be split between santorum, perry, bachmann, even ron paul? if there's a fractured vote, romney benefits. if they decide to coalesce as they did around mike huckabee, santorum could do strong, some think he could even win. >> john, appreciate it. fascinating. we'll talk to you shortly. i want to bring in our political panel, also braving the icy temperatures in des moines. donna brazell and mary matalin,

fascinating, down to the wire as it often is. what do you think is behind the santorum surge? in "the des moines register poll", it really is in the last two days his numbers increased dramatically. >> i think the cnn poll is behind the santorum surge. i talked to a lot of campaigns and pollsters outside who saw him trickling up, crowds greeg, but after the cnn poll all of a sudden it spiked up dramatically. part of it i wonder is it psychospsych psychosomatic. >> is that, mary, part of it, is that he's the last guy that hasn't bennet front-runner and hasn't had the attack ads against him? he's the last guy standing? >> yes, charlie cook, who's by all equations the best of the handicappers says he's the remainder man. people on the campaign say the surge has stopped. so -- and he has -- he had problems coming in and those

problems will come out. so, the typical -- nothing's typical this year but the late surge here, the fluidity typically goes to the late surger. but he's really not surging, according to people on the ground anymore. so, it's -- it's -- you know, we're still going down to the wire. >> donna, if you were mitt romney you don't mind santorum surge in iowa. it keeps conservative field divided. >> that's absolutely right. rick santorum has been here for many, many months, campaigned in all 99 counties. he's probably identified with people who will go to the caucuses tomorrow night, stand up, serve as surrogates. i think there's something real behind this momentum. only because the republicans are still sorting out, looking for an alternative to romney. right now santorum is the flavor of the week. >> how much does organization matter here in this final 24 hours? getting people to actually go to the caucuses. -- i was at santorum's headquarters and there were some very young people on the phones and -- that's about it.

>> some of the nontraditional campaigns, the cain campaign, gingrich campaign, thought on going on national media, book tours would compel people to go to the polls. then campaigns like perry and paul and romney who are saying, we need to have a ground game, who have spent time organizing in a way santorum until recently nor gingrich have had the money, time on or reverses to do. >> caucuses, it's not just people going in and voting. have you people talking for candidates, talking about the candidates. the better organized fields actually send in people. >> it's necessary but insufficient. it's necessary if it's closing in a tie because an organization will make the difference. but the sufficiency requires momentum. if it's not showing in the polls, the opposite is showing. romney has more momentum here than is being reflected in the polls. momentum plus organization, i think, is the equation -- >> do you think romney will win here? >> if -- it doesn't matter. paul and santorum or victors but

he will do better than expected. particularly given the fact he didn't play here till late, he's doing better already than -- >> and he ran before. he had an organization in place. also remember, independents can go tomorrow to the republican caucus, sign a form, register and declare their support for romney. >> democrats can re-register, right? >> absolutely. >> they can also go for paul, the wild card factor. >> as a democrat, what are you hoping for here tonight? i assume an obama supporter, what are you hoping for? >> well, obama have people on the ground. they're organizing tomorrow for the democratic caucus. he has to win the democratic nomination. he's on the post. i'm hoping the obama campaign will outorganize republicans to show they're ready to win the state. >> the democrats who are here, and obama have sent in people to monitor people what's going on, they have their own war room set up, i read that in "the times" today, what are they looking for, best organization on the ground?

? >> is perry still alive? right now their focus is clearly on mitt romney because they think he has momentum. he has the money to go beyond the iowa caucuses. >> and the polls he's most capable of beating president obama at this point. >> that's just a theory. we'll see. >> has a lot to do with name i.d. as well. >> how much life is there for other candidates? someone on our air the other night was saying some can foraging off the land, they don't need a big organization to continue to stay in the race, whether or not they have a chance to win it. >> they don't. this is preseason this year. we have proportional delegations. you'll only get ten delegates out of new hampshire and iowa. you get 75 out of south carolina and florida. some 400, 500 in one election. >> the significance of that is that it could be a long -- >> after barack obama people thought he would be the nominee in 2008. you had kentucky, west virginia, a number of states that went for

hillary clinton. he got the nomination but dragged it out. >> i think we're different. as much as the process is different, we don't know because we've never had front-loaded proportionality. we're still republicans and we like order. if mitt romney is knocking it out by the time we get to florida, it will be hard for other contenders to justify -- >> is it possible it could be essentially over tomorrow if romney has -- >> if it's a blowout. >> if it's a blowout. eric is absolutely right. have you a situation on the republican side where the bulk of the delegates will not be chosele until march, april. it could play itself out. you need an alternative to romney and conservatives have to get behind one candidate. >> obama and hillary were evenly matched. this is not -- this is going to sever the men from the boys in the next couple contests. >> we still have a woman in the race. >> i said that generic ily. >> we'll check in with our panel in a little bit. we also have paul and others coming in. we'll check back with all of them. let us know what you think. we're on facebook, google plus,

add to us your circles, on twitter@andersoncooper. i'll try to tweet but my hands are freezing. mitt romney is saying we're going to win this thing. exactly what thing was he talking about? we'll tell you that. a surprising mission from newt gingrich, talking about his own ch chances tomorrow. santorum is under fire for some of what he said but also taking heat from ron paul who's calling him too liberal. we'll explain as our coverage continues. nyquil (stuffy): hey, tylenol. you know we're kinda like twins.

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sounded like a stunning show of confidence. mitt romney turns out to be not quite as we showed you at the top of the hour. he stands as narrow front-runner. late polling here. by no means assured a victory. earlier this evening he sounded like a man clearly predicting a win tomorrow. listen. >> we're going to win this thing with all of our passion and strength and do everything we can to get this campaign on the right track to go across the nation and to pick up other states and to get the balance i need, the votes i need to become our nominee. >> sounds like a clear departure from the cautious tone he was telling. romney reporter said only

referred to winning nomination, not a victory tomorrow. newt gingrich is losing some swagger. referring to tomorrow he came out and said today, quote, i don't think i'm going to win. earlier today he said he might and just a few weeks ago he said he expected to win it all, to be the republican nominee. what a short, strange trip it has been. here's gary tuchman. >> reporter: as newt gingrich started this final full campaign day before the iowa caucuses -- >> mr. gingrich, do you still think the caucuses are winnable? >> sure. >> reporter: he expressed confidence he could still leave iowa victorious. later his opinion evolved. >> i don't think i'm going to win. i think you look at the numbers, i think that volume of negativity has done enough damage. >> reporter: the former history professor and speaker of the house has loudly and proudly stated he will not run a negative campaign. but a change is looming. >> do you tweak your campaign message after iowa? >> sure. i think you'll see us wednesday morning in new hampshire being much clearer about the choice between a conservative and a

moderate. >> reporter: and newt gingrich says that moderate is mitt romney, the man he blames for most of the negative campaigning against him. >> he's given me no choice except to make clear the difference in the two of us because i would have been perfectly happy to run a totally positive campaign and never mentioned it. he's made that impossible. >> reporter: gingrich is clearly angry, but on the stump at an agricultural museum in independence, iowa, he stays professorial and monotone. >> if you won't show your ad to your grandchildren, don't run it. >> reporter: gingrich's own grandson was by his side, in this case, inside the wheel well of big bud, what is said to be at 14 feet tall, the largest tractor in the world. an ideal back drop in a state where agriculture is so important. >> my position on ethanol is very simple. if i choose the next $1 billion going to iran or iowa, i pick iowa.

>> reporter: while campaigning, gingrich took time to plug his wife's history book, which features an elephant as the main character. >> we actually have ellis the elephant here this afternoon. it is his only visit to iowa this trip. >> reporter: children were encouraged to take pictures with the character, notably an elephant and not a donkey. gingrich seems to have accepted the likelihood he will not win in iowa but he rests his hope for a good showing of of voters who are unsure, voters who see the light to come home to him. newt gingrich says he doesn't need to be president. >> this is exciting. it's interesting. it's fascinating. but it's not -- it's not at the center of my being. it's the center of my duty. >> reporter: he does believe the country needs him. gary tuchman, cnn, independence, iowa. dig deeper with chief political correspondent candy crowley, david gergen, who is

sensibly somewhere else warm. there's been a lot of talk about how these attack ads have hurt newt gingrich. he did not have the money to respond, right? >> he didn't. i mean, also, you know, what you do is you have a campaign debit, you try to turn it into an asset. he didn't have enough money to respond pound for pound to what he was getting hit with because this was an outside group as well as ron paul was also doing negative ads. he couldn't respond pound for pound. he wasn't until recently even responding on the campaign trail. he tried to turn it into a positive. boy, don't we all hate those negative ads? if you hate negative ads, you better go to the caucuses and vote for me. so, it was a combination of things. i mean, it became a campaign strategy but it was a campaign necessity. he didn't have the money to do it. >> david, as much as one hopes campaign ads don't work, clearly they do, at least in this case. >> they sure did. i don't think he saw it coming. anderson, he told me back in december, he fully expected to

be fully vetted by the media. he thought that vetting would be tough on him. the big question is, would he be standing in early january. i don't think he foresaw the onslaught of negative ads coming from within the republican party. he's clearly furious about that. i do think he's going to be much, much tougher as he goes -- heads towards south carolina. he knows he's in the second tier now. one of the interesting questions is, will his anger be so intense coming out of this that, in fact, he may really want to inflict real damage on mitt romney as a potential nominee of the party. >> candy, in terms of -- how does this race differ from others you've covered thus far? i mean -- >> it's -- i mean, first of all, it's far more fluid. throughout the year -- >> everybody's been a front-runner. >> everybody got their shot. now it appears to be rick santorum's shot and maybe jon

huntsman in new hampshire. beyond that, it's still fluid. 40 -- 41% say, i could be persuaded to vote for someone else. it matters. if this were a primary and people vote in a booth by their own, i would say, don't pay attention to the 41%. but in iowa, you go and listen to your neighbors give a speech about a guy. and that can be persuasive. you have a friend that says, no, no, listen to me about ron paul or mitt romney or newt gingrich. so, you know, when 41% say, sure, i'm persuadable. there will be time for people to give speeches to persuade them. it has been fluid in terms of who's been up and down and it remains that way. >> david, even among santorum supporters, who are considered this year among the most dedicated, most likely to go out to caucuses, even a significant amount of them are fluid, are changeable. >> they sure seem to be. i was fascinated by mary matalin's report tonight that she thought the surge he was

enjoying had crested, which would leave romney the likely winner tomorrow night. going back to this fluidity, if someone doesn't break out tomorrow -- if romney has to, because he's raised the stakes so much, i think it's important for him to win now. i don't think you come in a second is -- it's going to look like he's -- you know, he lost the expectations game. so, i think it's important for him to sort of start breaking out and get above this lid of 25% he keeps running into in various places. there's an awful lot on the line for him tomorrow. if he wins big, a lot of us are going to be saying, he'll be very hard to stop, very likely nominee. if he does not, it could get much more interesting. >> so, david, you even think a second place finish for romney would reflect badly on him? >> well, i do -- i think clearly if he came in behind paul and santorum, even if it were bunched, clustered, i think he would be hurt. if he comes in second, after all

this, especially if he's second to santorum, then i think that it's unpredictable what happens after that. everybody thinks, well, santorum will just go away. coming in second to santorum would be a sign of weakness. coming in second to paul would not be so much as a sign of weakness as coming in second to santorum. >> david gergen, thank you. still ahead, more on the santorum surge, whether it has crested or not. former pennsylvania senator has gained major momentum in iowa in the last couple days. also ahead, crime and punishment tonight, a four-day arson spree in los angeles seems to be over. cars being fire bombed in parking lots. there's a man that's been arrested. they counted 53 fires. parked cars, most were started by fire bombs. $2 million in damage. ence teachr made me what i am today. our science teacher helped us build it. ♪ now i'm a geologist at chevron, and i get to help science teachers. it has four servo motors and a wireless microcontroller.

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hello, i'm isha. we'll have more from anderson on iowa caucuses in a moment. first, other stories we're following tonight. in crime and punishment, finally an end to the los angeles arson spree. 53 fires were set over four days, causing about $3 million in damage. the mayor says 24-year-old harry burkhart is in custody. one city official described the fires as the work of an arsonist who struck like lightning.

>> reporter: just after 1 a.m. monday, los angeles fire crews and arson investigators responded to nearly a dozen car fires in the san fernando valley, hollywood and west hollywood. on day four of l.a.'s arson spree, the number of cars set on fire exceeded 50. some of those blazes spread to structures, including apartments. residents were terrified. >> it's a new form of urban terrorism. >> reporter: sunday a task force of local and federal officials released this surveillance video of a man emerging from an underground parking garage in hollywood, announcing they wanted to speak with him. >> the task force has worked together seamlessly around the clock and currently reviewing more than 100 clues, mapping out the sequin of the fires that occurred, interviewing hundreds of witnesses and canvassing the 53 fire scenes as part of this active investigation. >> reporter: monday morning a man resembling the one in the

tape was spotted by a sheriff's deputy. fire officials say the man was driving a van similar to one spotted near suspected arson sites. he was taken into custody for questioning, then the arson spree stopped. >> we have not had any additional fires within the last two to three hours. >> reporter: what inference can we draw from that? >> again, it's too early. that would be purely speculative. >> reporter: as he sat smiling in the back of a patrol car, investigators examined the van and eventually placed him under arrest. "the los angeles times" reports the man may have had an issue with immigration officials over an yishl involving a relative. one firefighter was injured during the four-day spree. no civilians were hurt. authorities say they will continue excess patrols monday night. >> that was casey wian. now 360 bulletin -- a bludy day in syria. 26 people were killed. violence comes with more than 70 arob league monitors in the country. they say syrian tanks have

pulled out of cities but snipers remain a threat and the killings continue. new york city police are investigating a molotov cocktail bombing at a queens home serving as hindu temple. similar tax happened at a mosque and bodega. no one was injury the. two months after the death of robert champion, there's a new plan to tackle hazing at florida. tomorrow there's a campus memorial and a scholarship in his name. the board of trustee approved an independent panel of experts to examine hazing on campus new 200 birds have been found in the town of bebe. someone deliberately set off fire works near them on new year's eve. now, you may remember last year, 5,000 black birds fell from the sky on the same night in the same town. the man performing darth vader's star fight in "star wars" has died. bob anderson was a stunt double

in the movie and many others. anderson was 89 years old. and legendary singer aretha frankly is engaged to her long-time friend. they are considering getting married in miami beach this year. franklin who's 69 years old joked, she's not pregnant. >> thanks. we'll check in with you later on. the man at the moment in iowa, rick santorum, surging the polls and coming under attack. the question is, will he win tomorrow night? if so, what would that mean for his opponents and what about after iowa? it's a bit like asking if they want a big hat... ...'scuse me... ...or a big steak... ...or big hair... i think we have our answer. geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance.

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from the bottom to third in the latest polls and find himself under attack from his opponents. dana bash talked to ron paul about santorum's rise and he had choice words. >> reporter: rick santorum is a former senator. you know what it's like to seb in the senate and congress. why wouldn't he be a good republican nominee? >> because he's very liberal. >> reporter: rick santorum is liberal? >> i mean, have you looked at his record? i mean, go look at his record. i mean, he -- >> reporter: what makes him liberal. >> he spends too much money. he wasn't leading the charge to slash the budgets and vote against big government. >> well, santorum's strong social conservative don't see it that way. the ex-senator from pennsylvania is hoping to ride last-minute momentum into something meaningful. here's jim acosta. >> reporter: welcome to rick santorum's moment. >> good to see you. >> reporter: just one day to go before the iowa caucuses, the surging gop contender noticeded the crush of cameras following

his every move wasn't even there a week ago. that might explain why iowans have their doubts whether any of this is real. >> i'm one of those people here in iowa that's sitting on the edge, trying to make up my mind. >> come on. come on. >> reporter: santorum's message, it's real, all right. >> we've raised more money in the last few days than we have in the last few months. you know, going from zero to 60 in the polls, if you will, will help those resources a lot. >> reporter: now when gop front-runner mitt romney punches -- >> i like speaker gingrich, senator santorum has spent his career in government, in washington. >> reporter: santorum punches back. >> we are not looking for a chief executive officer. for this country. we're looking for a commander in chief. >> is he a fine man and he'll do a fine job for pennsylvania. >> reporter: but santorum has some convincing to do. republicans remember how he lost his senate seat five years ago by an astounding 18 points. >> who do you say to those

voters who are concerned about that loss you had in 2006 and whether you're viable in a general election? >> i lost an election in the worst election year for republicans in the history of our state. >> reporter: a key factor in santorum's loss was his controversial vote to have the courts intervene in the case of terri schiavo, a woman in a vegetative state whose family was over war whether to remove her feeding tube. santorum has no regrets. >> what i carried about with terri schiavo was to make sure that a judge looked fairly at the case. they did. they made their decision. >> reporter: santorum outraged gay rights activists when he seemed to compare homosexuality to beastalty in 2006. in every society the definition of marriage has not ever to my knowledge included moment homosexually. >> who has the best chance to beat obama? rick santorum. >> reporter: santorum isn't running from those comments. he boasts he's a full spectrum conservative in his new ad. he also has the support of

christian conservative reality tv star jim bob duggar who's driving the bus across iowa. he backed huckabee in '08. he's urging evangelical voters to back santorum now. >> a proven track record, a christian conservative that has always stood for what's right. >> the chuck truck! >> reporter: santorum doesn't ride in the bus. does he his campaigning in a pickup truck. a better fit for santorum's down to earth pitch. jim acosta, cnn, boone, iowa. let's dig deeper into santorum's surge. joining me is dana lash, st. louis tea party organizer and editor and chief, ari fleischer and ball begala who joins me in des moines. the santorum surge, how surprising is it to? what do you make of? >> it's stunning. seven front-runners in iowa. three aren't in the race

anymore. santorum seems like the guy who never did lead. i see him as franc finkle? . he's the only guy that survived the battle of little big horn. he survived because his horse couldn't get him there in time. santorum wasn't in the fire. he was too far back so nobody was shooting at him. god bless him, he's surging. i actually think he's going to win. >> do you sflael. >> do i. >> mary thought his surge had stopped. >> which means i'm probably wrong. in polling i would say trust the trend. in ann seltzer's poll, he went from tenth to fourth. but mary is more -- she's more knowledgeable about her party. i trust that trend. i think he's going to win here. >> dana, how surprised are you by santorum's surge? does it have any life regardless of how he does, assuming he's in the top three here? does very a campaign beyond iowa?

>> no, i don't think that he does. rick santorum, one of the reasons he's surging right now in iowa is because all of the other non-romney contenders have fallen at some point. newt gingrich being the latest one. now we're watching his popularity drop off. and so now rick santorum is whom everyone is looking. beyond iowa, he doesn't have the same level of groundwork. he definitely doesn't have enough money in the bank. i realize now that they're getting some fund-raising, but it says quite a lot when the funds you're getting in in the past three days are more or equal to what you've received in six months total. that says quite a lot. i don't think that he's really going to be able to go beyond iowa. that's just because he's a good candidate for iowa. and his surge is working right now because he's the non-romney. after that, i don't think he can do it. >> ari, i moean, how much does money mean this time around? there's a number of them,

gingrich one of thenl, that's been able to exist without any money. someone said the other day, living off the land. >> that's the good thing about having small states go first. rick santorum is proving that. money at this stage doesn't matter. it certainly will matter as you get down into the bigger states and multiple primaries on one day. you know, anderson, i hate to agree with franc finkle -- i mean, paul begala, but i do -- i think rick santorum is going to win iowa. you can just feel it. there is something exquisitely timed about the fact he's going up without having the burden of being shot at, which is what took newt down and others down. it's not such a referendum on rick santorum as much as still mitt romney is yet to have been able to get above the crucial mathematical threshold in which he can box out somebody and take first place. the real test for rick santorum will come next. i don't think he can win in new hampshire. but this race goes on. i see this working nout a victory for rick santorum in iowa, i have to say. >> fascinating. paul, if you were mitt romney,

you want rick santorum -- not necessarily to win but you want him in the top three for as long as possible, i assume, because he take as way from gingrich and others. >> i'm quite sure the romney people would rather -- somebody's going to be the anti-romney. i think they'd rather it be santorum than, say, a rick perry or gingrich or guys who think -- identify talked to some romney people, people they think had higher potential. >> in an actual campaign they thought -- >> greater ability to organize the way dana talked about, the greater ability to fund raise. also, more range. you know, this thing is not a marathon. it's a decathlon. one day you run the mile, next day you do the frisbee thing, and they not speary thing -- this is technical. >> the speary thing? >> yeah. >> someone needs to go in from the cold. >> but he's not as good with all the other range, i think, of issues and talents that a presidential -- >> dana, do you agree that in a

national race, rick santorum can't do as many -- can't appeal to as many people? >> rick santorum is a good politician. he didn't win re-election in his own state. he lost by double digit. that's quite a lot. he's the wrong candidate for this election. he seems to be campaigning more on social issues. that's not to say anything bad about social issues but this isn't a social issues election. this is an election where the two most major concerns with conservatives are the economy and immigration. while rick santorum talks well about those, he's known really for his stances on social issues. his remarks on those have received the most media coverage and the most controversy. i don't think he can get that wide appeal after iowa. >> paul, i'm sorry, ari, i want to play sound from rick santorum in iowa just from earlier today. let's play that. >> i think what i'm telling you to do is to pick the more conservative of the candidates. it's not to settle for something less than what you believe is the best.

and yet sometimes the best isn't that great but it's the best. as i've said, i'm not a perfect candidate. but i would make the argument that i believe that we're the best alternative out there. in the case of governor romney and john mccain, i settled for what i thought was the best alternative out there. >> ari, i mean that line of don't settle, that used to be michele bachmann's line that he's now using. do you believe, if he won here, as you think he's going to, that he has life in new hampshire or south carolina or florida? >> i don't think he has much life in new hampshire. i think that's a real fort for romney mr. i think you have to keep your eye on him. here is where i disagree, he's tailor-made for iowa because he likes social issues. that's his core, his strength. he can talk about it flute ently. but he can talk about economics fluently. he was a u.s. senator for many yea

years. he can make that pivot. he's smart enough to know he has to make that pivot because this is economic year, jobs year, a debt year, spending year. he has good credentials on those issues. i do think he'll do that. i think his real problem is going to be how does he adopt to the growth? how can he put it all together all of a sudden with all the burdens that will come on him now? that's very hard for a campaign to grow. it's a great problem to have, but that's going to be the test he's going to have next. >> paul, dana, fascinating stuff. ari, thank you so much. we'll be back. we knew it would take time, but we were determined to see it through. today, while our work continues, i want to update you on the progress: bp has set aside 20 billion dollars to fund economic and environmental recovery. we're paying for all spill- related clean-up costs. and we've established a 500 million dollar fund so independent scientists can study the gulf's wildlife and environment for ten years. thousands of environmental samples from across the gulf have been analyzed by independent labs under the direction of the us coast guard.

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let's take a look at other headlines. >> anderson, yes, national park officials say they found the body of a man suspected of killing a park ranger in mt. rainier. benjamin colton barnes body was found. he's expected of fatally shooting margaret anderson yesterday. barnes is also wanted in connection with another shooting yesterday that left four people wounded in a seattle suburb. the father of a missing toddler in maine is speaking out. telling the "today" show he just want his daughter back and would never do anything to harm her. she was last seen december 16th. police say the case has evolved from a missing child search to criminal investigation. three rirn chirn are out of hospital and back home in hut utah today after they were rescued saturday from a car accident that trapped them under

water. eight bystanders jumped into the frigid river to help the dad rescue the children who were trapped after his car slid down an embankment and into the water. and in minneapolis, a set of twins born in different years. baby beckette was born on new year's eve and a few second later his sister arrived in 2012. >> that's cool. congratulations to the family. erin burnett is up. >> well, you've been covering this from every single angle in des moines. tonight from cnn's election headquarters i'll be joined by michele bachmann, the winner of the straw poll and the leader to a while this summer in iowa. now polls show in "the in register," they show she could come in last plate. the big question, will she continue? we'll answer all of that out front tonight. also mitt romney. you know, just sticking right if

there, never below 23% even in iowa but never above 26%. is that a floor they should be celebrating or a floor they should be depressed about. back to you. >> coming up, back with our panel for quick final thoughts on who they think is going to win tomorrow night. mid grade dark roast forest fresh full tank brain freeze cake donettes rolling hot dogs bag of ice anti-freeze wash and dry diesel self-serve fix a flat jumper cables 5% cashback right now, get 5% cashback at gas stations. it pays to discover. can you enjoy vegetables with sauce

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from this time tomorrow night we'll have voting results. we'll get a final prediction but candidates have contingency plans for how to move forward. john king has that part of the story. >> a crowded field of candidates in iowa. we know they've been blanketing

the air waves. rick perry has advertised the most. mitt romney in a political action committee that supports mitt romney doing much of the attack ads on gingrich in iowa along with ron paul. the question is what happens after iowa? let's bring the map down. we know the campaign moves next up to new hampshire right up here. you see boston television market, some campaignses advertising here. goes down here, see ads in south carolina. here is what is most fascinating. the state of florida, fourth, right? one color. one color. on television here, restore our future. that is the political action committee that supports mitt romney, the former massachusetts governor. he expects to do well in iowa. he could win. he expects to win new hampshire. he needs to win new hampshire. south carolina is where romney went off the rails in 2008. what is this? in florida romney's friends, even before iowa votes, building a future fire wall. anderson? >> interesting stuff. let's get quick predictions from our panel. mary, one, two, three, who do

you think? >> romney. i think romney's going to win. i think santorum may outperform his current expectation -- >> but you think his surge has stopped? >> i'm telling people on the ground here, unaffiliated, and he's weighted down by michele bachmann has the preachers, the newt people are sticking with him to some extent. there's too many like candidates for him to exceed. >> so you think romney in one, santorum in -- >> santorum, paul. >> i think romney, paul and third perry or santorum. >> donna? >> i think it's romney. because he can attract independents. i think rick perry will live to fight another day, possibly in south carolina. >> i'm the lone ranger. i think santorum's surge holds and i think romney will be within two points of the 25% he got four years and $20 million ago. most expensive to points in america. >> you think romney? two? >> second place. right where he was last time,

25%. and then ron paul 18% to 20%. >> in terms of -- will anyone drop out, you think, after tomorrow? >> no. >> no. >> probably not. >> bach map if she does well. >> you don't think she'll try at least to get to south carolina? >> if she's out of money, i don't know she can. if romney comes in second, i mean, people are going to have to have a serious look at his candidacy that he can't after five years of campaigning, can't go up from where he started five years ago? >> let me be con temporary. he hasn't broken the ceiling but no one has broken his jaw. the point paul made earlier, this is not a marathon. it's a spirit thrower. whatever you were talking about. but there's only one candidate built for the new rnc rules which go on and on for months. romney is the only guy. if you look at the des moines register poll, gold standard, best general electric candidate, romney, and he has no enthusiasm gap. he is likely to maintain. >> mary is not mentioning gold standard for ron